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12/15/17

PPK could even be gone by tonight

Right now, Peru's First Vice-President Martin Vizcarra is negotiating with the all-powerful Fuerza Popular (Fujimorista) Congressional bloc in order to come to an agreement to ensure smooth passage. The basic deal is that he Vizcarra takes over as President (as stipulated in Peru's constitutionm the baton goes to the VP) in exchange for a pledge that he then dissolves government and calls a new Presidential election. 

If the agreement comes, PPK then resigns this weekend and Vizcarra takes temporary control (a weekend is a good time to do these things, closed markets and all that). All moving fast here, but if something comes up it might go to the vote at the end of next week and PPK gets thrown out the front door, shaking his fist.

The Friday OT: The Jam; That's entertainment

I had another tune lined up for the segment, then this afternoon reader FT sent this in:

Hi Mark:

Just wanted to drop you a line to thank you for the hilarity involving Daniel Amenduri. I am glad you are exposing these people.

Merry Christmas and Happy New year.

F...... T........

PS. For some reason when I read your email exchange, the song That's Entertainment by The Jam came to mind. I really don't know why.

That's a cue for a song if ever I saw one. Darned good song, too. All yours Paul, take it away:




Youtube here.

Daniel 'Davidoff Cigar' Ameduri

Judging by my mailbox (thank you all) I'm not the only one who can't stop laughing.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will not be President of Peru for much longer

Last night President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski of Peru tried to put on a brave front, addressed the nation via TV to say he would not resign and even offered to waive his right to banking secrecy in order to show he has nothing to hide. 

It doesn't matter, he won't last much longer as President. He's already been shown to have lied about his dealings with Odebrecht and now that solid evidence has appeared (e.g. he stated that his company, Westfield Capital, hadn't received a penny from either Odebrecht or middleman company First Capital, there are now signed receipts to show that is 100% untrue, with six figures sums involved too) his days are numbered. As well as details such as...

  • Last night he failed to get a vote of confidence from his own ministerial cabinet
  • This morning, one of his key ministers handed in his resignation.
  • The Peru Vice President has flown back in a hurry from Canada (needed for succession purposes)

...more importantly the Peru Congress is about to table a vote of No Confidence that would force him out if voted up. The vote isn't an easy one to pass and needs 2/3rds majority, which in practical terms is 87 votes out of the 130 total, but as two of the minor parties have now joined the 'Fuerza Popular' (Fujimorista) party in the call, Congress now expects to have enough votes. Congress has two weeks maximum from the time the motion is tabled to vote, which means PPK might not even make it to the end of 2017.

Assuming he's booted out (most political commentators in Peru now think he's a dead man walking), Veep Martin Vizcarra becomes President and though he could hold the mandate without any need for further ratification, it all points to a dissolving of government and new elections in early 2018.

UPDATE midday: The motion to kick out PPK was tabled in Congress a few minutes ago. Game on.

12/14/17

PPK on a tightrope

As things stand today, and according to word on the street in Lima, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski might not even make it to his interrogation in front of the Lava Jato/Odebrecht corruption committee scheduled for December 22nd. With the evidence mounting up against him of his involvement in cash-for-contracts with Odebrecht during previous governments (particularly during the Alejandro Toledo years around 2005-07) it's now at the point where if he doesn't hand in his resignation, the Keiko Fujimori-led Congress is going to demand it. 

And by the way, this might be a new story for you but it's not for readers of The IKN Weekly, as we've been following it very closely in many recent editions with the first this one, way back in IKN433 dated September 3rd:



EDIT: Peru PPK may be involved in the Alejandro Toledo corruption scandal
There’s a reasonably strong rumour travelling the streets of Lima tonight which has the potential to rock the country’s politics deeply. Josef Maiman, the person who allegedly was the go-between for bribes to then-President Alejandro Toledo paid by Odebrecht, has recently turned State’s Witness (in return for immunity from prosecution and has been providing evidence to the judiciary in Peru. But according to the rumour, not only has he provided detailed evidence of Toledo’s wrongdoings but has also pointed the finger at the current President, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, as recipient of bribes (PPK was Toledo’s Minister of Finance and his Cabinet chief during the Toledo presidency). And adding potential fuel to the fire tonight, it’s rumoured that an emergency cabinet meeting took place. What’s not rumour is that just a few minutes ago the Peru Public Ministry issued a statement saying the Maiman’s testimony will remain a secret and will not be published. This is still rumour and may be nothing, but may be massive. We’ll see.


Since then things have ebbed and flowed, but what we have seen is a noose tightening around PPK's neck. This week might be critical, watch this space.

UPDATE: The Spanish language timeline chart is doing the rounds of social media today. Though you need the both the language and at least some previous knowledge of the unfolding scandal to understand it, it's a very useful way of seeing just how much doo-doo the country's President is in right now:




UPDATE 2: It's now looking ominous for PPK. According to reliable sources (as they say) PPK held an emergency cabinet meeting this afternoon and did not get the support of his own ministers. He won't last long unless he really digs in his heels.



x

So I get this mail from Daniel Ameduri...

...which said exactly this:

Daniel Ameduri 
To:Otto Rock

14 Dec at 13:03
You know you almost screwed this promo up. 

Thanks for helping us start at a higher price. 

How's the test look bitch, am I missing anything?

DA


Under his purple prose he also sent over the test version of his pump he's about to unleash on the dumbass end of the marKet, and here it is:

 ----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Future Money Trends
To: "<< Test First Name >>"
Sent: Thursday, December 14, 2017 11:58 AM
Subject: [Test] Immediate Stock Recommendation: Zinc One (TSXV: Z)





I added that red highlight, by the way. Yup, seven hundred thousand dollars for two weeks worth of pumpo. Seems legit. So I replied this:

You're missing the bit that reminds people about Z.v going to $1.30 by May 2018 else you have to close down.

M


He hasn't replied. Cat got your tongue, Dannyboy?

UPDATE: Aha! He replies. Such a cutie:

You're like a trained poodle.

The extent of you being my bitch will be revealed to you one day, but not yet, we're not done doing the Lords work together. 

Your front running abilities, thanks to your dumb pigeoned brained readers is much appreciated. In fact, I've already decided to name my next Rolex after you.

Did you consider that the last time you did this, there was never a promo? But I fed you like a good boy with a zinc teaser, no company mention, just your readers buying and buying and buying.

And now, someone gave you very bad info. 

There is no Zinc One promo coming, no 700k either, the truth is, someone purposely gave you bad info and your hate for me blinded you to whatever that persons motivation was.

NE-Way, Im sitting here smoking a wonderful Davidoff Cigar and it just occurred to me, I still have some AAL shares left. Perhaps you can tip off your dumb Vancouverite readers and we can team up again next week. If you would like, I can even make another fake email like the one you received today and posted immediately, just like a trained dog. Judging by the volume, your brain dead pigeons did exactly as expected. 

Didn't take long by the way, just search your inbox for Jan 2017, all it was, was an 11 month old duplicate email. Of course I did go the extra mile and add a line about permit news and of course, this crazy 700k compensation that you believed to be true. 

One last favor, when you're done sucking FMT dick, please be sure to swallow any spillage.  Don't worry, thanks to your readers I'll be sure to leave a big tip. 

Good luck with your fantasy Zinc One promo. 

Daniel Ameduri


UPDATE 2: And the exchange continued. I waited a while for Dannyboy's final comeback, but so far nothing. If he comes up with something I'll stick it on the end. C'mon Dannyboy! You can do it! Don't be shy now...

Me to him:
Oh, and thanks for the extra post content by the way. Your Masters must live love the way you've become obsessed with the pissant blogger.

Him to me:
I know you'll never tell me, but I am curious to know who screwed you. Seriously, whoever told you there was an FMT promo coming and 700k was paid, was a complete lie. Why that person would try to manipulate you I can only think of one reason. 

Must of been someone you trusted though, because the fact that you highlighted the 700 disclaimer in the fake email, means it wasn't you who made it up, because you truly believed it. 

Someone lied to you and potentially hurt your front running readers. I hope you call them out. 

I would love to know who is using your site to bring volume and using my site to get you to pull the trigger for them. 

No more FMT promo's this year by the way. Off to a Disney cruise with the family. 

Best Regards,

DA

Me to him:
Seriously Dannyboy, is this all you've got left? You used to be good at this, what happened?

Looking forward to May 2018 when you keep your word and close down.

m

Him to me:
It's pure entertainment. 

Can ya bump up us to the top? 

Also, are we good for AAL next week? I want to make sure my broker is ready for your fake news front running alert.

DA

And me to him:
I do like it when the dumbfucks bite. What happens this end is that I publish what I publish and then, under normal circumstances, nothing comes back. That's because the real sector people who get fun features on IKN don't care, they're aware of the bigger picture and how little it matters what I think, say, do or write. But then every now an again some thin-skinned jerk with deep-seated psychoses and fears of having his all-important money being snatched away from him by an imaginary bugbear gets just a little too worried and sure enough, they'll write in. All bluster and bullshit, all passive-aggressive defence mechanism, or sometimes veiled threats. I get the ones threatening legal action too of course, but you're definitely not one of those idiots.

I honestly didn't know how much I was getting under your skin, Dannyboy. It's going to get fun now. Enjoy Disney.

Asanko Gold (AKG) and K2 Associates: The most impressive trade of the last 18 months

Wednesday December 13th marked the moment when Asanko Gold (AKG) broke through U$0.47 to the downside, which was the original price target posited by K2 Associates in its short report on the company dated June 27th 2016. We at IKN have followed this trade quite closely over the near 18 months between then and now starting the day after the K2 publication (here) and today we are obliged to pay tribute.

This was the most impressive trade I've witnessed in the last two years. I, along with many others I talked to at the time, was doubtful of the trade (one friend said it was "impressive" and "brave", trader code for reckless), but we knew nothing: Not only has the K2 thesis played out, it's done so almost to the letter and on a near-exact timeline too. This was an example of (nothing short of) brilliant DD outwitting and showing the lies peddled by a company for exactly what they were (and are), a large barrowful of BS that went completely undetected by the hapless and gullible fools in the Canadian sellside. Yes indeed, we should also make clear K2's thesis flew directly in the face of every single brokerage with AKG coverage, to a person they had buy ratings and very fancy price targets on the stock. We also need state that even as the AKG story began to unravel and it became clear K2 had got it right the brokerages insisted on their long calls and often doubled down, so it's unknown how much client money was incinerated by their collective idiocy.  K2 took all their money and, with their target now hit, we can only assume they've taken theit profits. Another house that cashed in of course was Muddy Waters, which made a more public splash when announcing short early this year. By then AKG was a $2-and-bits stock, but K2 was shorting this since U$4.15...credit where due, ladies and gentlemen.

Cut to today and from this point until the end of its life, AKG management will try to blame bad luck, or inaccurate third party reports, or gold price, or whatever else. The truth of AKG, as revealed by the most efficient capitalist measure known to man (short selling for profit), is far more nefarious. The people at the helm of AKG are shameful liars who, if the sector wishes to improve itself, should never grace the boardroom of another mining company again. Or as somebody who has also followed this woeful tale of deceit put it to me earlier this very week;

"If you start with no gold, and you salt the assays, that’s fraud. But if you start with a little bit of gold and then use a computer to add multiples more, well that’s just poor judgment. Bre-X were a bunch of amateurs compared to AKG."

12/13/17

Checking in on how well Pascua Lama is going

Last year Barrick (ABX) auctioned off the trucks it had bought for its Pascua Lama project in Chile (we understand Antofagasta bought them and they're now doing the rounds at Antucoya). This week ABX auctioned off even more of its Pascua Lama infrastructure, including lifting gear, storage facilities and box containers.According to Barrick Chile this is because, they, "...are not necessary for this phase of the project. We are temporarily paralyzed until September 2019."

So now you know.

Seriously people, this Zinc One (Z.v) Ameduri pump is going to push the thing a lot higher

That corrupt crudball Daniel Ameduri has been given $700k cash by Neumeyer and his sycophants to spend on pumping this company, as well as all the options he personally owns and the shares recently bought at lows. All upfront, too. He's going to spread that cash around to all the usual suspects, Germany, USA, Canada, James West, that slimy Schaefer guy, Casey's Louis James obviously, the two-faced ratbags at CEO a who will suddenly take a coincidental interest in this stock...all those and more on the payroll.

So get these low 40s numbers before the braindead pile in. Eat some of his lunch.

Eric Sprott and Garibaldi (GGI.v) Part Deux: How Eric reduces his cost average

Once the game-changing move into a stock like Garibaldi Resources (GGI.v) gets made and a guy like Eric Sprott holds all the cards...
  • Control position in the market and active purchases continuing
  • BS-spouting company run by people with a track record of hype-and-fail
  • Hoards of True Believers on one side who will stake their grandmother on the BSsers being right about it being next Voisey's Bay
  • Another hoard of people on the counterbid, i.e. those people who see GGI for what it really is and know the chances are stacked high on it being a long-term failure.
...what do you do if you're Eric Sprott and you want to play the company like a cat with a mouse? Well, you do two things:

1) For a start, you make sure the volatility continues. In order to stay in control, you want to whip the stock price around as much as possible and deter those who think they're smart. So when bad news comes out, you whack on the asks and run the stock up 10%. On (what passes for) good news, dump into the bids get it to dive 20%. Nobody in their right minds will step in and daytrade something with no set direction and with price action that defies newsflow. After a couple of rounds of burnt fingers the rest of the world stays away and Eric has his toy all to himself.

2) You lend out stock to shorters and/or you trade short yourself. The most obvious play of all, as you get to hedge your own position and once in control of the price swings, in the enviable position of being able to reduce one's cost average by flipping several times a day (which also accounts for the multiple block-type ticker action I'm seeing most days, whether or not Mr. Sprott files new aggregate insider purchases). This is again the type of smart marketcraft you'd except from a guy like Eric Sprott and as he's better at this than you, his cost average will quickly ratchet down over time.

As long as Eris Sprott is active and GGI can spin out its BS story (i.e. at least until the Canadian Spring when they'll be obliged to drill again...then count eight to ten weeks as they drag heels on first results....then another eight as the project-killer holes finally show up...man this can go on til this time next year) the people who are short are in for a rough ride on GGI, they'll be screaming and wailing and telling us it's not fair. Which is fine, because there are ignorant greedy dumbasses on both sides of this story* and the only smart ones are 1) the officers of GGI who have raised the cash to guarantee their paychecks for years and 2) the person playing you all like a toy trumpet. His name is Eric and he's richer than you for a good reason.


*The arrogant conceit of the shortside is just as annoying as the plugdumb ignorance of the greenhorn longs who have been sold a vision of Scrooge McDuck diving into a pool of money. The only people worse are those running the scam, pretending to be long and cheerleading the stupid into holding...they have a special place in hell waiting for them.

PS: Dear retail holder of GGI: When you hear people referring to this post as nonsense and made-up rubbish (and you will, I promise), take a note of that person's name. Because they are either 1) utterly stupid in the ways of the market or 2) lying to you. Now you have a nice day there, yeah?

Doing business with Canaccord

This is a great read, but it's also standard practice at Canaccord. Check out the link which shows how a couple of grubby directors at Cannimed and the grubbiest of investment banks can scupper your pot business, go behind your back, take the info protected under CA and give it straight to your competition (which, coincidentally, has a long and fruitful relationship with Canaccord) who then launch a hostile bid on your butt. An excerpt:

CanniMed is also questioning the actions of investment bank Canaccord Genuity, which it says had access to its confidential financial and operating data as an adviser to Newstrike before being engaged by Aurora for its hostile bid.
"Canaccord was subject to non-disclosure obligations with respect to CanniMed's confidential information and a breach of these obligations has significant administrative law consequences. Aurora knew or should have known of this inappropriate conduct and the consequences of such actions," it said in its application, one in a flurry of announcements Monday related to the takeover scrap.
A Canaccord Genuity official declined to comment, citing a policy not to talk about any current mandates. It is not known whether the bank, which has a long-term relationship with Aurora, destroyed any paperwork and deployed a different team for the hostile bidder after severing its contract with Newstrike, as is standard practice.

And here's the whole Cannimed vs Aurora deposition, which includes this point (and the ones after 79 are well worth a read, too):


Kermit, your thoughts on hiring Canaccord as your dealmaker?


My thanks to A. Reader for the heads-up.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) and its tailings spill in Peru

Today news comes of a tailings spillage at the Huaron mine run by Pan American Silver (PAAS) in Peru.

As this is obviously a material event, we can be 100% certain that this company will give us more information later today. Right guys?

12/12/17

A Flash update....

...has just been sent to subscribers, 10pm local time Monday Tuesday evening. A couple of things to report.

PS: And like a foolI managed to label the update 'Monday, too. I live in the past. Sorry, should have said Tuesday.

The Daniel Ameduri pump job on Zinc One (A.v) starts tomorrow

Thr long lost drill permits have finally shown up. Expect a company NR tomorrow lunchtime and don't say you weren't warned.

Keith, that's one leaky boat you got there. Why you trust Ameduri is beyond me.

Good to see Rye Patch Gold (RPM.v) confident it can get to commercial production in 1q18...

...as per its update yesterday, what with the way it was working cap negative to the tune of CAD$23m at the end of 3q17 (which means even worse now)...

...it owed $38.65m in current liabilities, most of that financial debt accruing interest of between 16% and 36% (yup, that says thirty-six percent, it's not a typo)...

...as well as the long-term lumps of course, and its cash position is dwindling rapidly again

By the way, my fave bit of yesterday's NR was when CEO Howald said after the 3,491 oz Au produced in November means (and we quote), "At this point mining operations now begin to contribute positive cash flows to the Company", which is one impressive piece of verbal gymnastics. It translates as "we fractured more cash in October and November and mining ops cash flow still don't cover corporate costs." Natch.

So let's take bets on the size and price of the next round of equity financing: I say they sell 100m units at 15c apiece for $15m and get that shares out count to 527m in one shot. Any counters?

And you know it's Peak Blockchain when...

...Henk van Alphen and Cesar Lopez join forces to IPO a blockchain company onto the TSXV. This is going to be a hoot.

The big question about Mineros SA

Will it backdoor into the TSX by buying Atacama Pacific (ATM.v), or will it try to go it alone via an IPO? The guys at ATM seem to think it's a done deal that they'll get bought out by the Colombians, but the longer they dick them around the higher the chances that the Colombians walk.


Chart of the day is...

...copper, month of December:




Back at three. That didn't last long.

12/11/17

Eric Sprott and Garibaldi (GGI.v)

So there I was, watching the market today, with the radar screen open and the action in that current day hotstock Garibaldi (GGI.v) clearly catching the attention as it plummeted after the Friday afternoon BS news release that didn't fool anyone with a brain (i.e. the population of CEO.ca is forgiven, they know not what they do) when it dawned on me that Eric Sprott was in there buying once again. Not content with splashing his cash into the stock the way he's done recently...


...there were more blocks going out from time to time in exactly the same way. And that puzzled me because this GGI thing is a hyped-up souped-up vehicle with way more sizzle than steak, a story that the company will be able to spin out for as long as there are gullible idiots prepared to flush their cash down the toilet (in other words, indefinitely), so what's a successful and smart player like Eric Sprott doing in the marketplace, doesn't he have enough shares already? Doesn't he have a home to go to? Got a better hobby, Eric? The thought kept scratching at me so, rather than keep it at an intuitive level, it was time to go and get some real data. What follows is accurate (I believe) as at the end of last week, December 8th as per SEDI and GGI Reg Fs, so it doesn't include any purchases Eris Sprott made today (doubtless a few hundred thousand more) but has enough information for our purposes.

Here we go:

As far as I can make out GGI.v today has 97.81m shares out (feel free to correct me if I'm a few out either side, but it's going to be close anyway) and of those, Eric Sprott owns 11.59m. That's 11.85% of S/O and once you add in the un-exercised warrants (3.873m of those, with 2.286m or them well in the money and 1.587m out the money at $4.50 strike) his F/D stake goes up. So he's obviously keen on GGI and his continued incursions show he's hungry for more, but it's when you start examining just how he built position that the strategy becomes clear.

The key is the first move in, when he spotted the upcoming hype early and bought 7.816m shares at 82c and 92c. Along with those, a couple of weeks ago he exercised 833k options at a 20c strike, so there on those three he has 8.65m or so shares in his pile. Total price paid? That's $6.77m or so.

Which brings us to the second part of his strategy, as since then Mr. Sprott has been a constant buyer at market prices. Go check the SEDI filing yourself but once you do you'll see the same as I and, if you can be bothered to do the same sums, you'll see that his market purchases aside from the cheap entries described above come to 2.939m shares (as at the weekend just gone remember, add in today Monday yourself later if you want) and cost him the pretty total of $9.36m so far. So, add together the early cheapies and the market priceys bought by Sprott and you get a man that's paid $16.13m for 11.59m shares. Your average price: $1.39 per share (not including the warrants).

The point---> People, he can hardly lose. No matter how many shares he adds from here (presumably the ultimate stop for open market purchases is 19.99%), thanks to the early purchases he's going to stay under the market price for the indefinite future. What's more by continuing the buying spree he controls the bid/ask, as if it goes too low he just whacks in and the momo crowd follow suit (after all this is Eric Sprott right? Never made a bad call in his life yaknowz...). The key to this all is, of course, his balls of steel to buy large and early when the rest of the market were just cottoning on to the opportunity. That's the sign of a master at work and I truly take my hat off to him for the way he trades into a position, it's as close to real genius as you see in the Canadian capital market, but almost as impressive is the way in which he's played the open price at the new high levels (and in doing so kept them high, all to his own benefit). And ultimately, Sprott is likely to keep on driving to the very end of this road because thanks to his market craft his own odds are stacked well in his favour. Here's his risk/reward equation these days:
1) If the whole GGI edifice turns out to be a mirage, it's not going to return to zero cents (these things never do). Let's say for argument's sake it dumps to a long term 50c. Eric loses $10m maximum (and it wouldn't take much market nous for him to being his cost basis down to zero quickly).

2) However if GGI does turn out to be the next Voisey's Bay or whatever, he's holding 12% or 15% or 20% of a multi-billion dollar asset. That moves the dial of anybody.

3) So a billionaire gets given betting odds of at-worst $10m to the the downside and (let's say) $1Bn to the upside. This one is not difficult, count the zeros, but as an added bonus he gets to do what he loves to do the most and play serious in the market, limelight and kudos and ego-stoke, the whole nine yards.

Bottom line: GGI's future matters more to you than it does to Eric Sprott. The man in charge of this ticker is allowed to be an idiot with $10m because his  world class early perception of the market move. Add that to his out-sized stones and you have a man in what he believes to be a highly advantageous position in GGI. So be clear, you are not him, you aren't as rich, you aren't as powerful, you aren't as good as spotting an early market opportunity. On the other hand you haven't been duped into believing (first by the story, then by bias confirmation twaddle from the company and its True Believers) that the shysters in charge of this BS show really might have the next VB. You see the big and stupid mistake he's making by throwing good money after bad and recognize that now is the time to short this utter POS, laugh deeply at the idiots on CEO.ca making fools of themselves and take a minor piece of Eric's wealth away from him. He won't miss it and you'll enjoy it.

Catching up with Auryn Resources (AUG.v)

Regulars to this humble corner of cyberspace may remember this October 19th post on Auryn Resources (AUG.v) that noted the initial collapse of its bloated share price away from the $3 level and ended this way:
"When (not if) AUG.v breaks $2 to the downside, the wholesale margin calls that Haywood will deliver are going to push this over-hyped vehicle even lower."
Cut to today and...


...yup, exactly as predicted. And Haywood were the sellers last week too...hoodathunkit eh?

So. well done to Goldcopse for buying into this Daniel Ameduri pump job. Winning.

12/10/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN447 has just been sent to subscribers. Words, numbers, charts and photos of rocks and people.

The Guatemalan Margarita

I've just been sent this photo from a pal sitting in Guatemala today:


Certainly different.

12/9/17

Angry Geologist does Garibaldi (GGI.v) again

I've stated my position clearly enough, but this is a detailed and careful analysis of the latest drill hole that came out this week and worth your eyetime. Stop wasting your time at IKN and read something interesting instead on this link right here.

12/8/17

The Friday OT: Pulp; Common People

There's this advert on TV for Canada Dry this end of the world that uses the Pulp song 'Disco 2000' as the backing music, which gave me a dose of nostalgia and had me running to Youtube to check it out as a possible Friday OT. Which isn't going to happen because 'Common People' is a better track altogether. And the video might look clunky these days, but it was quite the zeitgeist thing at the time.



And "I took her to a supermarket" is still one of the best pop song lines ever.

Youtube here.

12/7/17

Totally OT: “I Made My Shed the Top-Rated Restaurant on TripAdvisor”

Busy person doing busy things today and this has nothing to do with anything normal to IKN but no matter, it simply must be shared.



Wonderful on so many levels, do your funnybone a big favour and read this. The woman sat next to me on the plane this morning started giving me funny looks and shuffling to the other side of her seat I was laughing so much. Deeply indebted to reader T for the heads-up.


Posting will be light for the next couple of day on this blog

For secret reasons.

12/6/17

Core Gold (CGLD.v): Avoid like the plague (from IKN446)

This in last Sunday's edition of the Weekly

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



Core Gold (CGLD.v): Avoid like the plague
Like a bad penny, it turns up again. Once called Dynasty Metals and Mining (ex-DMM.to), the Ecuador gold producer is now named Core Gold (CGLD.v) and is under new management, headed up by one Keith Piggott (last seen turning Goldgroup Mining’s (GGA.to) share price from dollars to pennies after ruining the Caballo Blanco project in Veracruz). Last week we got two piece of news from CGLD, the first being very flashy trenching results on Thursday from its ‘Linderos’ exploration project (21) including 21m of 18.51 g/t gold. This was enough to pop the stock on Friday morning, but once the close came CGLD gave us its second piece of news (22), that it was taking out a U$15m debt facility as well as selling another 4.33m shares at 30c a shot. Talk about not hanging around! Talk about coincidental timing!

I was also impressed with what CGLD plans to do with the $15m loan it expects to close at the end of 1q18 (nearly four months? Rather weird). After earmarking U$4.5m to pay off its current due loan to Vertex (accruing at a 16% interest rate and half of it already two months past due date) plus another $0.5m for fees, it plans to spend $4m upgrading its production facility (even though the real plant bottleneck is the fact it can’t get its rock out the ground quick enough) and another $6m on “Corporate development initiatives and general working capital including exploration”, a happy catch-all for “whatever we like, stop asking questions”. So let’s see how an extra $15m in debt (at a 12% interest rate) would fit into its current balance sheet:




As at 3q17 CGLD was running a working cap deficit of $16.731m (even worse when you consider most of its current assets are run-of-company inventories). This has been boosted by a recent $3.5m placement (at 30c) so it does have a little more money now, but operations are still breakeven at best and are certain to stay that way, because the lion’s share of the money it owes is to its own workers and suppliers. That’s aside from the other liability line items which are mostly financial debts owed to several entities (Vertex first in line).

The proposed $15m debt deal is, therefore, a refi that simply adds more onto an already creaking balance sheet. Its liquidity and working cap problem isn’t suddenly going to go away (if the workers hear about a millionaire stash of cash they’ll want their repayment…or else) and anyone buying this stock today is betting on trenching results. From this company and track record.

With 106.8m shares out and a 34c share price before Friday’s raising announcement (which if fully taken would bring the count to 111.1m S/O), CGLD is currently valued at CAD$36.33m by the market which is approximately $36m more than its true value. Now that of course does not preclude the potential for this stock to move higher on some kind of promo push by the company and/or market voices, but the combination of the wealth destroyer known as Keith Piggott in charge and the money pit known as Elipe SA in Ecuador is more than enough for any serious investor. Run away from this deal and don’t ever look back, there are literally hundreds of better opportunities in this market no matter how good the veins under those trenches turn out to be. Or if you don’t believe me, try taking a hint from the ex-CEO of Core (when it was called Dynasty) Robert Washer, who has diligently sold 270,000 of his large share pile into the open market in the last six weeks. He has lots more too, so don’t let him sell them to you.



Tinka Resources (TK.v): Buzz Lightyear explains the latest NR



NR here.

12/5/17

And while Alset Minerals (ION.v) hits new 52 week lows...

...its CEO and head liar Allan Barry Laboucan still has nothing better to do with his time than flap his gums on CEO.ca 24/7/365. Or at least when not playing golf or "testing" the local tequilas.


Hey Barry you waste of space, how's that campaign to close down IKN going for you? It's been nearly three months, so still working on it? Or trying to sweep your blowhard buffoonery under the carpet again while cutting yourself those monthly paychecks for doing absolutely nothing?

Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL) in trouble with Peru's Environment Ministry

Why they bought White Elephant we know by the name of Coricancha is beyond me.

UPDATE: What? A link to the news? Oh, okay.

No doubt about the main metals story today

Copper's dump under U$3/lb:


The wires are trying to blame a small rise in LME stocks, but that's BS because it's on the back of a big dumpage. It's more like the over-egging of the bull case, copper is higher but can't hold the top prices forever. Also, a few shorty moves shoving the metal under the 3-line makes for good headlines and China isn't stupid,they prefer to pay less for copper than more.

12/4/17

Junior mining and Tinder: Swipe right

To begin it must be stated that I do not and have never had the Tinder App or an account with Tinder, to the point where even though I know what it is and how it works I had to Google "Swipe Right" to check whether I'd got the term for acceptance correct. My personal life has no need for its services. I also hasten to add that to the best of my knowledge the person who sent this screenshot into IKN Nerve Centre, Reader M, is a single guy with no serious ties and every right to use this useful, popular and wholesome App in order to improve his social life.

So with context clear I'd like to say that there's something deeply satisfying about seeing a junior mining company advertising on Tinder.



Especially one with this type of price chart:




My new theory about B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG)

On considering the combination of...

1) The news out of BTO this morning.
2) The share price reaction to this news.

...I have formulated a new theory about this company, which goes like this:
"If B2Gold announces tomorrow morning that it has discovered the lost city of El Dorado, its shares will trade unchanged on the day on average volumes."
Thank you for your attention.

A last word on Garibaldi Resources (GGI.v), from IKN446

A short piece cobbled together for part of the latest edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN446:

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Garibaldi (GGI.v): A final comment
“A belief is like a guillotine, just as heavy, just as light.”
Franz Kafka

I was going to let the whole issue of Garibaldi Resources (GGI.v) and its self-proclaimed discovery at E&L Nickel Mountain drop after my quick word in this space last week, but it just so happens that since then I’ve done something I rarely do these days; I’ve paid attention to the chatrooms and bullboards of GGI and spent the week reading them closely (NB: no writing on them, I gave that up long ago). Due to that (this section is called ‘Market Watching’ after all) a few words here because even among the world of juniors this stock has gone off-scale in the number and nature of its True Believers.

Bullboards tend to be cruddy places at the best of times, either slagfests between people with opposite views (“you are only long/short this stock because your mother slept with the postman”) or circlejerks that provide all the bias confirmation you’ll ever need to stop you selling out of your mistakes. However, the evangelical tone and sheer weight of ignorance being propounded by those who would be your thought leaders regarding GGI is a whole different league. There is no debate and there’s no argument possible, nothing will change the unshakeable belief (of people who are obviously already bought in and have no arsenal left except words) and constant verbal onslaught that this is the next Voisey’s Bay or whatever else. There are many examples of the constructs and lines of attack being used but perhaps the best is the elevation of the consulting geologist to GGI to Godlike status, as the words of Dr. Peter Lightfoot are now revered as holy scripture and that any other geological opinion aside from his is to be immediately discarded. People, he’s a consulting geologist! I’ve met and talked with a dozen of them, of course they’ve forgotten more than I know about their specialist subject but for crying out loud they have a job to do, a paycheck to pick up!

The fervour and tone of True Believers about GGI, a company that uses classic marketing, photos of core to whip people into a frenzy before making them wait months for real assays (that then fall short on several counts (25)), run by people with a proven track record of hype-then-disappointment with a need to raise capital and with a carefully considered plan to use the Northern winter season as an excuse in order to play out the promotion as long as possible (plenty of time for placement buyers to sell) stacks up to red flag after red flag. Yes, of course the next drill hole may turn this speculation into something more solid (it’s not called The Truth Machine for nothing, after all) but even after considering the normal odds on world class discoveries, chances aren’t great. Add in the BELIEF stoking an outsized market cap and the risk/reward balance for anyone thinking of getting in now is nastily skewed. And believe me, Dr. Peter Lightfoot will continue to be a world-class nickel geol without a blemish on his name no matter how this story plays out, his reputational hit if GGI withers and dies will be plain straight zero. He’s a geologist, not a market mover-maker-shaker, he doesn’t give a fig about how much money you lose and neither do his peers.

And that’s it for GGI, except to say that while searching the Google machine for the exact wording of the Kafka quote I also came across something Carl Sagan once said on the same subject. It struck me as uncommonly wise (as was Sagan of course) so it gets to be the end of this little note.

“People are not stupid. They believe things for reasons. The last way for skeptics to get the attention of bright, curious, intelligent people is to belittle or condescend or to show arrogance toward their beliefs.”

Words from which I can learn something. It also reminded me of bullboards again; look if you must, but don’t touch.

There will be no more on GGI in The IKN Weekly.



Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, Part 102

 

We're back with another happy installment of our occasional series, designed to try and cut through all that wordy word stuff that mining companies thrust upon us and get to the real message underneath the NR. Today's example comes from Orex Minerals (REX.v) and is entitled, "Orex Signs Letter of Intent to Acquire the San Luis del Cordero Silver-Copper-Zinc Project in Durango, Mexico".

This is what they wrote:

VANCOUVER , Dec. 4, 2017 /CNW/ - Orex Minerals Inc. -- (TSX-V: REX -- OTCQX: ORMNF) ("Orex"), is pleased to announce that they have signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Exploraciones del Altiplano SA de CV ("Altiplano") to acquire 100% of the San Luis del Cordero Project in Durango, Mexico . This project is a skarn and epithermal vein hosted silver-copper-zinc district, located 155 kilometres northeast of the City of Durango.
Orex's President, Gary Cope says, "Acquisition of the Cordero Project gives Orex a third quality asset, with upside exploration potential, in the prolific Silver Trend of north-central Mexico ."
Terms of the Agreement
This is a non-binding LOI and we are currently drafting a formal agreement. Terms of the proposed agreement will consist of the following annual phases and payment schedule, with all amounts in $US:
On signing the agreement = 100,000 shares and $100,000 .
On the first anniversary = 200,000 shares and $150,000 .
On the second anniversary = 300,000 shares and $200,000 .
On the third anniversary = 400,000 shares and $550,000 .
On the fourth anniversary = $1.5 million (of which 30% can be in shares).  Ownership of the property would then be transferred to Orex.
There will also be work commitments for the first two years of $400,000 in Year 1 and $600,000 in Year 2. There is no residual Net Smelter Return (NSR).
The Cordero project has undergone several phases of exploration, with multiple targets yet to be explored. Mineral concessions cover 2,825 hectares and include the full extent of the known mineralization. Old mine workings and mineralized showings wrap around a quartz-feldspar-porphyry intrusive. Diamond drilling of 62 holes from the period 2000 to 2016 total approximately 16,400 metres.
Altiplano possesses a Technical Report on a Resource Estimate for the project, compliant with NI43-101 and dated 2014, containing an Indicated Resource of 662,600 tonnes grading Ag 121 g/t, Cu 0.78 % and Zn 1.06 %, for a silver-equivalent of 240 g/t and 5.1 million ounces silver. In addition, there is an Inferred Resource of 2,785,300 tonnes grading Ag 144.4 g/t, Cu 0.75 % and Zn 1.45 %, for a silver-equivalent of 273 g/t and 24.4 million ounces silver.
For the purposes of silver-equivalent in the 2014 report, metal prices of Ag= $19 /oz, Cu= $3.00 /lb and Zn= $0.90 /lb were applied. The technical report was written by T.W. Hodson, P.Geo., an independent Qualified Person, and has an effective date of 1 October 2014 .
Ben Whiting , P.Geo., Vice President – Exploration for Orex Minerals Inc., is a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101 and takes responsibility for the technical disclosure contained within this news release.
ABOUT OREX MINERALS INC.


And this is what it means:

"We would like to take this opportunity to confirm to the market that Sandra Escobar is a POS."

B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): This is good

Here's the NR, here's how it starts:

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - December 4, 2017) - B2Gold Corp. (TSX: BTO) (NYSE AMERICAN: BTG) (NSX: B2G) ("B2Gold" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Fekola Mine in Mali achieved commercial production on November 30, 2017, one month ahead of the revised schedule and four months ahead of the schedule announced in the Optimized Feasibility Study ("OFS"). Ramp up to full-scale production at Fekola remains ahead of schedule with gold production well above budget in each of the ramp-up months, beating original recovery, grade and plant availability estimates in the OFS design. To November 30, 2017, the Fekola Mine has produced approximately 80,000 ounces of gold1, approximately 158% above budget (31,000 ounces). Gold production from the Fekola Mine in 2017 is now forecast to be between 100,000 and 110,000 ounces, far surpassing the upper end of the original guidance of 45,000 to 55,000 ounces. Based on current assumptions and updates to B2Gold's current year guidance and long-term mine plans, the Company is now projecting consolidated gold production in 2017 of between 580,000 and 625,000 ounces.


Graña y Montero (GRAM): Three ex-directors have just been thrown in jail

The Odebrecht corruption scandal claims its latest victims, as three ex-directors of Peruvian construction company Graña y Montero (GRAM) have been jailed in pre-trail custody (due to flight risk, along with one other director of a separate Peru construction company. A fifth accused from a different company has been charged but given house arrest for health reasons. They are charged with directly aiding and abetting Odebrecht in the U$20m bribe handed over to the then ex-President, Alejandro Toledo.

Hilarity ensues.

Lydian International (LYD.to) news

It's been a long time since this name popped up on the IKN radar, in fact you have to go back to 2015 and this post which commented on the financing deal LYD ran and the way in which, by doing so, totally it hosed its shareholders.

It would seems that IKN's opinion is shared by others. What follows is a mail intercepted by IKN last night from a source which must remain anonymous. Its author is Tim Coughlin, one of the founders of LYD and along with Peter Mullens the driving force behind the original discovery. Coughlin addresses his mail to Douglas Tobler, the current COO of LYD and from what the mail tells us, apparently LYD had floated an idea to name one of the conveyors at the Amulsar mine after Coughlin in recognition of his work. Let's see what Coughlin's opinion of that idea is and please note, one specific section has been redacted to remove names of people.

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Dear Doug,

Hayk advises that there is a proposal to name the conveyor after me (?)

Thanks, but no thanks.

I still live in a world where founders and founding shareholders are held in the highest possible regard. You, in-fact, owe your job and your outrageous salary and annual free shares to those people (although being fair-minded they would never have approved such a corruption). Yet you and your "team" in a fit of selfish panic, at the very bottom of the market (to the day), managed to effectively give the company away and erode all that hard work and all that shareholder value from what should have been an exemplary project.

(A number of people mentioned in the mail) year-on-year invested the high-risk money to move the project through its difficult early years, despise your practices. We paid for every share, you denuded them of value with what must be close to the worlds worst mine financing arrangement ever and then, in an arrangement which should have faced much closer scrutiny from the regulator, you enlist the help of your new owners to award yourselves your RSU's; free shares, every year, in a scheme voted through by the two institutions you effectively sold the project to.

I am happy for Armenia and I know that country better than any of you, but I do not agree to having my name on any installation of the bastard you are building.

до свидания и трахаться




IKN back and we particularly like the flourish of Russian at the end. Do like your humble scribe and stick it through Google Translate.

12/3/17

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN446 has just been sent to subscribers, it includes a full write-up on Eros Resources Corp (ERC.v), the stock alluded to in this post on Thursday morning.

12/2/17

Garibaldi (GGI.v): The missing 96 metres

Alphamining makes a simple but very good point about this pump job. Right here.

Very expensive things on Amazon

My pal Steve Bodzin has spotted a glitch in Jeff Bezos's empire and started a new blog to tell you all about it. Unsurprisingly, as its Bodzin it's also funny too. Check out an example here.

12/1/17

The Friday OT: Deacon Blue; Chocolate girl

A blast from the past:



Just a really good pop song. Catchy ballad, good lyrics and tight band with a sound of its own. Youtube here.

Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): The Santa Ana mega-lose

No matter what Catherine McLeod-Seltzer pretended (e.g. her silly speech at Beaver Creek this year) this was always going to end badly. If you stripped away the emotive arguments and looked at the facts of the the matter, it was as close to an open-and-shut case as they come. IKN tried to tell you too, no end of occasions, latest example here:
"Bear Creek is going to lose. It's going to lose badly, embarrassingly and heavily. Anyone holding this stock for the Santa Ana angle and thinking Swarthout = Payout is in for a nasty surprise."

BCM.v got $30.4m from the ICSID case, which doesn't even cover the cost of the lawyers, let along the time cost.so much for their demand for $522m. Your NR:

"VANCOUVER, Dec. 1, 2017 /CNW/ - Bear Creek Mining Corporation (TSX Venture: BCM) announces that the Tribunal of arbitrators hearing the Company's Santa Ana arbitration claim (the "Arbitration") at the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes ("ICSID") has rendered an Award (the "Award") of approximately US$ 30.4 million in favor of the Company, which Award includes interest and arbitration costs (including attorneys' fees)."

However, BCM couldn't resist trying to BS you even today with the announcement of this mega-fail...a nasty case of pride swallowing going on, methinks. This for example...

 "...the Tribunal agreed with the vast majority of Bear Creek's arguments."

...it just gringo hogwash. The plain and nasty fact is that there was only one fact that mattered; you should never have taken this case to court because you didn't have a hope in hell of winning. Peru knew it too, which is why their "see you in court, suckers" call was the right one. You lost BCM, period. Own it.

11/30/17

The Chile election shock (from IKN445 last weekend)

Round two come a week before Christmas and, contrary to most expectations, Sebastian Piñera has a fight on his hands. This from IKN445 last weekend

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Chile: A shock result in round one
Last weekend’s result in round one of the Chile Presidential election blindsided me, but at least this time I have plenty of company because it came as a shock to just about every seasoned political watcher in Latin America. It might not have looked like it at first glance, with the top three names in the order they were supposed to come, but last Sunday’s Presidential round one election was a big shock that has seen Chile take a surprise jump to the left.

At the start of the month we had headlines like (8), “Top Chile Pollster Predicts First Round Win for Former President Piñera”, which came with quotes such as, “Everything is moving in that direction, and if he does not win in the first round he will get at least 45 percent of the vote, so it doesn’t make much difference”. As late as last week at the Colombia Gold Symposium, I was asking both Chilean residents and political-watcher experts who were of one voice, “Piñera shoo-in. Therefore the final result…

  • Sebastian Piñera 36.63%
  • Alejandro Guillier 22.70%
  • Beatriz Sanchez 20.27%

…was a big shock. However, it wasn’t just a numerical surprise with no consequence, it opens the door to a full-scale fight in the round two run off on December 17th. Headlines now read like this (9) (10) (11):

  • Piñera aims for center in tight battle for Chile's top job

  • Chile faces new political landscape as leftwingers dent billionaire Piñera's hopes

  • Piñera faces battle to win Chile presidency

  • 1st-round leader Sebastian Piñera no sure thing for Chilean runoff election

And that’s just the international coverage in English, the mainly right-wing controlled press in Chile is having its own version of a nervous breakdown, four squillion words spilled to date.

The biggest surprise to the upside was the 20.27% harvested by Beatriz Sanchez of the left wing “Frente Amplio” (Broad Front), an alliance of several left wing and hard left wing groups such as the Humanist Party, the Liberal Party, Democratic Revolution, the Green Ecologist Party, the Equality Party among others. Her showing was Chile’s version of the type of “anti politics” protest vote from grassroots that has seen many surprise results in the last couple of years all over the world.

Sanchez got closer to the eventual second placed candidate that everyone expected (and must have caused a few nerves in the Alejandro Guillier camp on election night, less than 2.5% separated them in the end). Guillier now goes into the second round run off against Piñera and though strictly speaking is running as an independent, his “Nueva Mayoria” (new majority) party is the obvious follow-on from the current Michelle Bachelet government and if he goes on to win it would be seen as continuation of current policies.

Piñera’s weaker than expected showing was due the to Beatriz Sanchez surge, but also due to the 7.93% garnered by José Antonio Kast, a seasoned hard-right wing politician and open supporter of General Pinochet (and his legacy), who was expected to get around 2% of the vote but ended up with 7.93%.

As for market reaction to the result, here’s the ten day chart of ECH, the US traded ETF that tracks the Chile stock exchange:

Picture speaks a thousand words. Meanwhile, though the Chilean Peso hasn’t put in the rally I called for earlier on the year and gone under 600 to the US Dollar yet, it was a long way from panicking and this weekend’s 634 forex shows the underlying currency isn’t anywhere near as spooked as the more flighty verdict of Chilean exposed equities

Summing up, what we need to know today is that Chile has taken a lurch to the left. The combo of a strong showing by real left wing Sanchez and the chances of centre-left-same-as-current-government Guillier in round two mean that the left wing now has Kingmaker powers. Indeed Sebastian Piñera has admitted this and has stated out loud he will “court the centre” in order to get past the winning post in December. That might mean the alteration or plain dropping of some of his more strident righty election proposals, such as promised tax cuts for businesses or plans to make big cuts in public sector jobs.

Meanwhile, Guillier’s job is to gain the support of as many of the 20% who voted for Sanchez as possible. That process starts by getting her official support of course and that means making concessions to the left (Sanchez’s group campaigned against quasi-government candidate Guillier by stating that the Bachelet social reforms were too little and too slow). If we add in the other minor left candidates likely to opt for Guillier in round two, he has at least 45% and that’s enough to make a serious challenge. This one is now in the balance.

As for mining, for sure it would prefer a right wing win next month but let’s not start wailing about he entry of Communism into Chile or other such silliness, a Chile mining industry under an eventual Guillier government would be in practical terms little different to the Chile we’ve seen during these Bachelet 2 years. In other aspects yes, Chile would bring in more left-wing policies (schooling, public health etc) but for mining, it will keep on keeping on whoever gets’ the nod. To give that context, I suppose I’d reduce the overall Chile score in our Regional Risk Review come end December by one point, two max, if Guillier wins. Hey, it might drop by a point due to a Piñera win now too, what with the close vote coming up.

Bottom line: There are better things for you the mining investor/speculator to worry about than the result of this upcoming election. Once the shouting dies down, mining in the country will continue as per.